Week Ahead: US Midterms, BoE and NFP, November 2026 (2–6 Nov)

The October NFP report lands on Friday 6 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC, and it closes a heavy week: the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday, America votes in its midterm elections the same day and the Bank of England announces on Thursday. US clocks go back on Sunday 1 November, so every US release this week comes one hour later in UTC than it did in October.

Crypto goes into the week soft. On our last snapshot (Tuesday 27 October, 10:36 UTC) total market cap was $2.66T, BTC traded at 79,651 with 60.0% dominance and the Fear & Greed index read 48, neutral. Gold perps sat at 3,998.70.

The calendar (UTC)

Time (UTC)	Event	Why it matters
Tue 3 Nov 03:30	RBA rate decision + Statement on Monetary Policy	Sets the tone for AUD and Asia-session risk
Tue 3 Nov, all day	US midterm elections	Results arrive overnight into Wednesday; a weekend-style gap risk in the middle of the week
Thu 5 Nov 12:00	Bank of England decision + Monetary Policy Report	GBP and global yields; a full forecast round
Fri 6 Nov 13:30	US jobs report (NFP), October	The first big US data point after the Fed's 28 October meeting

We don't quote forecasts we can't source. Check the consensus in the calendar on Friday morning; the number that moves price is the surprise against it.

Election night is the risk most traders forget

Elections don't come with a release time. Results come in state by state while Asia trades, and the bond and currency markets reprice before the US cash open. Crypto and on-chain TradeFi perps trade straight through it, so the first reaction to a surprise in the House or Senate will happen on-chain, in thin overnight books.

If you hold leverage into Tuesday night, size for a gap, not for a normal day's range, and check your distance to liquidation first. Our liquidation price guide has the formula and worked examples.

NFP November 2026: what moves BTC and gold

A strong payrolls number with firm wages pushes yields up and the dollar with them. That has tended to weigh on gold and on BTC in the hour after the release. A weak number does the opposite. Watch funding as well as price: if longs are paying well above the usual 11% APR baseline going into Friday, a miss can unwind them fast. See how to read funding.

Levels we are watching

• BTC 80,000. It traded just below this round number on 27 October. A daily close back above it after the election and NFP would tell us the sell-off has run its course. Failing there keeps the pressure on. BTC chart.
• Gold 4,000. Gold perps were a whisker under it. Hawkish surprises from the BoE and a hot NFP are the combination that would keep gold below. Trade gold on SorooshX.