What is the distribution of forecasts for the US employment report (NFP)? Knowing the range of forecasts for the US employment report (NFP) is important, but the distribution of these forecasts is also a key factor in market reaction. Usually, the market experiences a "statistical surprise" if the actual figure deviates from expectations. But the more important point is that even if the published number is within the forecast range, it may still surprise the market; Because most analysts may have concentrated their predictions in a certain part of that interval. For example, if most forecasts are near the top of the range but the actual figure is released at the bottom of the range, the market may still see it as disappointing. Forecasts for Non-Farm Payrolls Report Range of predictions: from 10 thousand to 140 thousand jobs The highest concentration of forecasts: between 70 and 80 thousand jobs Consensus: 80 thousand jobs Forecasting the unemployment rate 4.3%: 43% of predictions 4.2%: 56% of forecasts (market consensus) 4.1%: 1% of predictions Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.6%: 9% of predictions 3.5%: 82% of forecasts (market consensus) 3.4%: 9% of predictions Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.3%: 89% of predictions (market consensus) 0.2%: 11% of predictions summary Although the US Non-Farm Employment (NFP) report is usually one of the most important economic data for the markets, the author believes that the inflation report (CPI) that will be released next week will be more important; Because in the current situation, the main focus of the Federal Reserve is on inflation control. Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly emphasized that: The labor market remains stable. Currently, the labor market is not the main cause of inflationary pressures. The reason for this is that wage growth has gradually decreased since 2022 and is now approaching pre-coronavirus levels. Therefore, traders should pay more attention to wage growth statistics than the number of jobs created; Because this indicator is now more important for the future decisions of the Federal Reserve. Release time Today is 16 PM in Iran
