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$ETHUSDT / 4h -- STRUCTURE -- Trend: BULLISH / moderate-to-strong Pattern: HH_HL BOS: BULLISH @ 1696.4 Decisive break above the prior swing high cluster (1690-1696) on expanding volume confirms a bullish break of structure. CHoCH: BULLISH @ 1674.1 The aggressive reclaim above the consolidation ceiling after a minor lower-low at 1654.6 marks a change of character from range-bound to impulsive bullish. Primary Price recovering from extended consolidation below SMA128, recently broke above the long-term range with a strong impulsive candle. Mid-term MAs (SMA28/58) are rising, indicating a developing bullish shift on the intermediate horizon. and Behavior Sharp impulsive breakout on the 2026-06-14T20:00 candle (1665 -> 1725.3) followed by sustained acceptance above 1715, now pressing toward 1747 highs. Price has broken out of a multi-week base bounded roughly between 1650-1696. The breakout candle's range and follow-through suggest genuine demand. However, price remains below the descending SMA128 (1821.42), meaning the higher-timeframe trend is still corrective. This is an intermediate bullish leg within a larger downtrend recovery. -- MOVING AVERAGES -- Stack: MIXED -- MOMENTUM -- ATR ticked up from a compressed ~21 to 24.11, reflecting volatility expansion accompanying the breakout. Volatility had been contracting prior to this move, a classic coil-then-expand pattern. Volatility: expanding from compressed base -- LIQUIDITY -- Support: 1715.6 | 1708.8 | 1696.4 | 1675 Resistance: 1747.9 | 1821.4 Sweep: DOWNSIDE 1654.6 Price dipped to 1654.6 (sweeping liquidity below the range lows at 1656-1658) on 2026-06-14T12:00 before the explosive reversal — a stop-run that fueled the subsequent breakout. FVG: 1667.9 - 1708.8 (BULLISH) The breakout candle (1665->1725.3) left an unfilled gap/imbalance in the 1668-1709 zone. This is a potential demand area on a pullback. -- BULL SCENARIO -- Trigger: Sustained acceptance above 1747.9 with a 4h close. Confirm could be Follow-through toward 1780-1800 region, retest of the descending SMA128 (1821) as the next major objective. Invalidate: 4h close back below 1696.4 (BOS level), reentering the prior range. -- BEAR SCENARIO -- Trigger: Rejection at 1747.9 and a 4h close below 1708.8. Confirm could be Loss of 1696.4 with momentum, RSI dropping back under 55, indicating breakout failure. Invalidate: 4h close above 1750 sustains bullish control. -- NEUTRAL ZONE -- Range: 1696.4 - 1747.9 Conditions: Price consolidates between the breakout zone support and current highs, digesting the impulse without resolving direction. -- RISK -- Rating: MEDIUM ATR Stop: 36 pts Context: ATR-based stop (~1.5x ATR = 36 pts) places protective level near 1701, just below the breakout structure. Expanding volatility increases both opportunity and whipsaw risk near the overbought RSI. -- SUMMARY -- Intermediate bullish breakout from a compressed multi-week base, occurring within a still-corrective higher-timeframe structure capped by the descending SMA128. Price is in an impulsive expansion phase, holding above rising short/mid MAs with strong but nearing-overbought momentum after sweeping range lows. Confirms change, A clean 4h close above 1747.9 confirms continuation toward 1800-1821; conversely, a close back below 1696.4 invalidates the breakout and signals a return to range/bearish behavior. The downside liquidity sweep at 1654.6 followed by the impulsive reclaim is a textbook stop-run-then-breakout sequence. The unfilled imbalance at 1668-1709 is the key demand zone to watch on any retracement. Bullish bias is valid but tactically the RSI proximity to 70 and the looming SMA128 resistance argue for managing expectations into the 1820 region rather than assuming an unimpeded trend reversal.