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Bitcoin Analysis #45 — BTC Market Update If we read the chart from left to right, Bitcoin was trading around 78K in late May and is now trading near 63K, That means the first question isn't whether price has bounced from 59K to 63K The real question is: What structure has the market maintained on the larger timeframe? And the answer is simple: - The primary structure still shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows - The first major high formed around 78K - From there, price failed to hold its gains and entered its first significant decline - After each selloff, buyers attempted to push the market higher, but every rally produced a lower high than the previous one - That's the textbook definition of a downtrend In market structure terms, it looks like this: 78K High ↓ 73K Low ↓ 74K Lower High ↓ 65K Low ↓ 67K Lower High ↓ 59K Low So far, there has not been a single Higher High within the structure Most traders are focused on the 64K area because that's where price is trading now, But from a structural perspective, 64K is not the level that defines trend reversal. The last major Lower High that led to the move down toward 59K sits around 67K–68K, This zone matters because it was the final area where sellers defended before the market printed a new low, As long as that area remains intact, it's difficult to argue that the broader downtrend has ended. In other words: • Breaking above 64K would only improve short-term conditions • Breaking above 67K–68K would be the first meaningful attack on the bearish structure Intermediate Structure Looking only at recent price action, one important change can be seen, Selling pressure has slowed around the 59K low, and the market has managed to hold several higher lows above that bottom, This suggests sellers no longer have the same level of control they had earlier in June, Because of that, the short-term structure is no longer aggressively bearish, However, that should not be confused with a full trend reversal. Current view: • Primary structure = Bearish • Intermediate structure = Bearish • Short-term structure = Neutral to slightly bullish Price is currently trading around 63.2K EMA28 is sitting near current price and acting as the immediate battleground EMA58 remains near 67K, while EMA78 is closer to 69K Even if price pushes above 64K, multiple layers of structural and trend resistance still remain overhead That's why a few green candles alone are not enough to confirm a trend change Conclusion At the moment, the chart is showing no confirmed change in the primary market structure, What we're seeing is more consistent with a corrective rally inside a broader downtrend than the beginning of a new bullish trend, Since the 78K high, the market has continued to print lower highs and lower lows, while the last major Lower High around 67K–68K remains untouched. From a structural standpoint, as long as that zone is not reclaimed, the dominant scenario remains bearish continuation — even if the market delivers several thousand dollars of upside in the short term.