Economic news (Oct 12–19 2025)
Here are the major economic stories from the past week, along with a breakdown of what they mean.
1. Global growth outlook and debt concerns
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its “World Economic Outlook – October 2025” showing global growth projections of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
- Advanced economies are expected to grow at about 1.5%.
- Emerging markets and developing economies just above 4%.
- Key risks flagged: elevated uncertainty, escalating protectionism, labour supply shocks, fiscal vulnerabilities and potential financial market corrections.
- Analysts at S&P Global also flagged that growth momentum is moderating in many major regions, due in part to “front-loading” of tariffs and weak trade growth.
- In short: while the numbers are not collapsing yet, the flavour of the week is caution — growth is being sustained but by fewer and more fragile pillars.
2. Trade tensions and global risks
- Trade frictions, especially between the US and China, are increasingly seen as one of the main drags on global growth.
- The IMF’s discussion emphasised that the world economy may be experiencing a “calm before the storm” scenario, where the immediate data look okay, but underlying vulnerabilities remain high (tariff shocks, debt, fragmented trade).
- Examples: gold and silver surged amid renewed US-China trade tensions. Metals often act as safe-haven assets when trade and growth worries mount.
- A practical risk: if trade tensions deepen, cost pressures may increase, supply chains may be disrupted, and policy responses may be delayed or less effective.
3. Specific notes of concern – debt & structural issues
- The IMF also warned about soaring global public debt: projections show that debt could exceed 100% of global GDP by 2029.
- Fiscal buffers in many countries are thin. Many economies face structural challenges such as ageing populations, low productivity growth, and limited policy space. For instance, the Bank of England’s Governor cautioned that productivity growth in the UK has been dragged down by a combination of demographic headwinds and reduced trade access.
- The message: the global economy is running on somewhat borrowed time — growth is enabled currently by investment (especially in AI/tech) and stimulus, but structural and fiscal issues loom.
4. Key regional highlights
- The US: The IMF noted that investment in AI has been cushioning the US economy from sharper slowdown, upgrading the 2025 growth forecast to ~2% (from previous estimates) thanks to tech/investment strength.
- China: The economic picture remains one of concern — structural drag from the property market, overcapacity, weak consumption growth. The notion of “involution” (internal competition reducing returns) is being applied to parts of China’s economy.
- UK/Europe: Brexit’s long-term growth drag remains real — the BOE’s Bailey said the UK will still face significant drawbacks from trade barriers and productivity headwinds.
Crypto & digital-asset news (Oct 12–19 2025)
This week has been exceptionally eventful for cryptocurrencies — both for the size of the move and the number of underlying structural themes.
1. Historic crash & liquidations
- Over the last week the crypto market experienced one of its largest sell-offs ever: more than $19 billion in liquidations across leveraged positions were triggered in a 24-hour period.
- For example, Bitcoin (BTC) fell from a recent high above ~$122,574 down to ~$104,782 at one point over that weekend (Oct 10–11) — a drop in excess of 14%.
- Altcoins took heavier damage: some saw drops of 50-70% in a short period due to the highly leveraged nature of trading in the crypto ecosystem.
- The crash triggered intense hedging activity: option markets have seen increased purchases of puts in crypto, signalling that traders are bracing for further downside.
- The story here: risk has come home to crypto in a way that illustrates the fragility of highly leveraged, sentiment-driven markets.
2. Diverging signals & selective strength
- Despite the broader gloom, some cryptocurrencies are showing signs of relative strength or resetting sentiment: for example XRP and Solana have had bullish signals in their options markets, even while Bitcoin and Ether remain stuck.
- There are also broader themes of institutions accumulating or preparing to accumulate, while retail sentiment is heavily skewed toward fear — the “Fear & Greed Index” plunged to around 28.
- Additional market-structure changes: liqudation risk remains elevated; some analysts caution that leverage may spawn a vicious circle of forced selling.
- In summary: while the market is massively down, there are pockets of resilience or potential recovery, though the risk architecture is much scarier now.
3. Ecosystem & structural developments
- The collapse and broader macro backdrop (trade tensions, regulation risk, institutional flows) are reminding investors that crypto is deeply interconnected with broader global macro and policy flows.
- From crypto-market volume metrics: The total crypto market cap (according to some sources) reported a sharp rebound into Q3 2025, hitting ~$4.4 trillion, up ~16% in the quarter. Yet, the crash this week shows how quickly sentiment can reverse.
- Regulatory / structural concerns: the interplay between macro policy (tariffs, trade, tech investment) and crypto is becoming more pronounced. For example, trade and tariff announcements triggered the initial crash.
- So the ecosystem is transitioning from purely “digital finance” to being embedded in the larger macro-financial system (with all its fragility).
Analysis & Outlook for Next Week
Given last week’s developments, what should we watch and how might things evolve over the coming week (roughly Oct 20–26)? Here are key areas and scenarios.
A. Economic outlook
- Tariff/trade risk remains front-and-centre: With global growth fragile and trade flows under stress, any further escalation (especially US-China) could knock confidence and force central banks or governments to respond. A new trade shock could impair growth expectations further.
- Debt/fiscal pressure build continues: Many economies are running with thin buffers. If growth disappoints, the ability to respond may be limited. Markets could start to price in an increased risk premium around sovereign debt, especially in peripheral regions.
- Central banks & policy divergence: The US is somewhat buoyed by AI investment, but inflation remains a concern. If inflation stays sticky, central banks may be reluctant to ease — which could suppress growth further. Meanwhile, regions with limited policy space (emerging markets) may suffer more.
- Risk of policy mis-step or over-reaction: With the economic backdrop being one of “balanced on a knife-edge”, a mis-read of data (e.g., inflation surprise, debt distress) could trigger sharper market reaction.
- Commodity/precious-metal flows: As seen, gold and silver are acting as safe havens. If risk increases, we may see more capital shifting in that direction — conversely, if growth expectations revive, those may unwind.
- Outcome scenario: The base case for next week is modest growth but elevated jitteriness. The downside scenario: a trade or policy shock triggering a sharp market repricing. The upside: some resolution or clarity in trade negotiations, which could lift sentiment.
B. Crypto outlook
- Support levels & accumulation: With Bitcoin and Ether having fallen significantly, next week could be about finding or testing support levels. If institutional players believe the worst is priced in, there might be accumulation; if not, a further leg down remains possible.
- Altcoins/distress assets: Some altcoins (XRP, Solana) are showing resilience; we should watch whether that turns into meaningful strength or if the broader market drags them down.
- Leverage risk remains: The liquidation spiral risk is still very real. If another catalyst triggers fear, forced selling could worsen the situation. Monitoring leverage metrics, option‐implied skew, and liquidations will be key.
- Macro linkage: Crypto is clearly reacting to macro events (trade war, tariffs); thus next week’s developments in trade or regulation could spill strongly into crypto. A positive resolution in macro could help crypto, negative shocks would likely hurt it further.
- Sentiment shifts: The sentiment index remains low (fear). If we see signs of stabilization or positive news, the rebound may be stronger; but if fear deepens, the downside may dominate.
- Outcome scenario: The most plausible scenario next week is continued consolidation with high volatility. A bullish scenario: a macro positive shock triggers a relief rally in crypto. Bearish scenario: further macro trouble or internal crypto event triggers another leg down.
C. Key things to watch next week
- Trade negotiations or announcements (especially US-China)
- Central bank commentary or surprise data (inflation, employment)
- Sovereign debt stress signs (e.g., bond yields in vulnerable economies)
- Crypto liquidation data, leverage indicators, option markets
- Large institutional accumulation announcements in the crypto space
- Regulatory signals for digital assets
- Precious-metal flows and safe-haven asset behaviour
Final word
Last week served as a warning: the global economy and crypto markets are both operating in vulnerable states. Growth is still holding up, but only just; policy and trade risks loom large. Crypto showed how quickly extreme risk can materialize given leverage and macro-linkages.
Next week may not deliver calm. On the contrary, it may force either a stabilisation (if good news arrives) or further pain (if bad shocks hit). For investors and watchers alike, the time for vigilance is high.
SorooshX Updates
We are excited to announce the listing of trending trading pairs on our platform (Spot and Futures) during the last week:
- Spot: LAB (LAB), Fleek (FLK), Enso (ENSO), Yieldbasis (YB), Recall (RECALL), ZEROBASE (ZBT), Revive (RVV).
- Futures: METUSDT, 4USDT, CLOUSDT, RECALLUSDT, TAKEUSDT, ZECUSDT, GIGGLEUSDT, RIVERUSDT, LABUSDT, ZBTUSDT, RVVUSDT.
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